Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP) inverts this paradigm by enforcing a predefined upper bound on set size and estimating the resulting coverage guarantee. However, the looseness induced by Markov's inequality within the BCP framework causes a significant gap between the estimated coverage bound and the empirical coverage. In this work, we introduce ST-BCP, a novel method that introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores to narrow the coverage gap. In particular, we develop a computable transformation and prove that it outperforms the baseline identity transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the average coverage gap from 4.20\% to 1.12\% on common benchmarks.

We propose and analyse estimators for statistical functionals of one or more distributions under nonparametric assumptions. Our estimators are derived from the von Mises expansion and are based on the theory of influence functions, which appear in the semiparametric statistics literature. We show that estimators based either on data-splitting or a leave-one-out technique enjoy fast rates of convergence and other favorable theoretical properties. We apply this framework to derive estimators for several popular information theoretic quantities, and via empirical evaluation, show the advantage of this approach over existing estimators.

We propose and analyse estimators for statistical functionals of one or moredistributions under nonparametric assumptions.Our estimators are derived from the von Mises expansion andare based on the theory of influence functions, which appearin the semiparametric statistics literature.We show that estimators based either on data-splitting or a leave-one-out techniqueenjoy fast rates of convergence and other favorable theoretical properties.We apply this framework to derive estimators for several popular informationtheoretic quantities, and via empirical evaluation, show the advantage of thisapproach over existing estimators.

Entropies, divergences, and mutual informations are classical information-theoretic quantities that play fundamental roles in statistics, machine learning, and across the mathematical sciences. In addition to their use as analytical tools, they arise in a variety of applications including hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, feature selection, and optimal experimental design. In many of these applications, it is important to estimate these functionals from data so that they can be used in downstream algorithmic or scientific tasks. In this paper, we develop a recipe for estimating statistical functionals of one or more nonparametric distributions based on the notion of influence functions. Entropy estimators are used in applications ranging from independent components analysis [Learned-Miller and John, 2003], intrinsic dimension estimation [Carter et al., 2010] and several signal processing applications [Hero et al., 2002].